Jingoistic posturing out of China hasnt sent the usual Olympic message

July 20, 2021 â€" 5.30am July 20, 2021 â€" 5.30amNormal text sizeLarger text sizeVery large text size

Let’s just say it wasn’t your typical goodwill message to kick off an Olympic Games. Japan had difficulty enough already ahead of this week’s Tokyo Games opening.

With COVID rampant, most Japanese people want the games cancelled. Even with spectators banned, the Japanese fear that the influx of foreign officials and competitors will increase the disease burden on an overstretched health system.

COVID is just one of the problems confronting the Tokyo Olympics.Credit:AP

Already, thousands of Japanese citizens on emergency repatriation flights escaping the virus overload in Indonesia are being diverted from Tokyo because the airports are jammed with Olympic arrivals.

And in spite of the supposed Olympic spirit of goodwill to all, the South Korean delegation to Tokyo used the Games to display big anti-Japan protest banners, taunting Japan over a 16th century war.

The Koreans were ordered to take the banners down from their athletes’ village on Monday but are still refusing to eat the food provided by their host nation, a political protest pretending to be a health scare.

So much for Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s hopes that the Games would revive his popularity. It’s such a mess that Suga’s approval numbers are plunging, 31 per cent in a Monday poll by Asahi Shimbun, and falling fast.

South Koreans feel strongly about Japan’s military history in their country.Credit:AP

“It is highly unlikely that the Japanese people would go along with his political ambition when it could entail huge health risks,” says commentator Yoichi Kato. “It could even trigger an Olympic cluster.”

As if this litany of woes is not bad enough, a friendly voice from across the Sea of Japan last week threatened a nuclear attack on the Olympic host country.

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A five-minute video published on China’s internet proposed that Beijing set aside its policy of “no first use” of its nuclear weapons to make a special case of Japan.

The clip was created by a military commentary channel called “Liujun Taolue”. It was viewed two million times before it was deleted. But not before it was copied to YouTube.

Its original title: “If Japan intervenes militarily with our reunification of Taiwan, we must propose the ‘Japan Exception Theory’“.

Illustration: Dionne GainCredit:SMH

The narration, translated from the Chinese, says: “When we liberate Taiwan, if Japan dares to intervene by force, even if it only deploys one soldier, one plane and one ship, we will not only return reciprocal fire, but also start a full-scale war against Japan.

“We will use nuclear bombs first. We will use nuclear bombs continuously until Japan declares unconditional surrender for the second time.”

It’s replete with dramatic footage of missile launches and mushroom clouds and scenes of devastation from Japan’s nuclear aftermath in 1945.

Its exact provenance is unclear. It purports to have some sort of connection with the People’s Liberation Army. But its removal suggests that it didn’t have any high-level imprimatur.

At least one local chapter of the Chinese Communist Party, in Baoji, Shaanxi Province, thought it was worth reposting, however, and gave it new life on its official account.

The narrator says that although Beijing promised “no first use” of its atomic arsenal in 1964, “now the international situation has changed dramatically … In order to protect the peaceful rise of our country, it is necessary to make limited adjustments to our nuclear policy. We solemnly put forward the Japan Exception Theory.”

In all, it’s a jingoistic provocation without any apparent high-level endorsement. “It’s quite something,” remarks the Australian sinologist Geremie Barme. “Brings to mind the famous Chinese wartime saying: ‘If we all spit in unison we can drown the Nipponese dwarfs’.”

China’s technology has been upgraded; the sentiment is unchanged. Tokyo wisely chose to ignore it. “The content is really quite amateur,” observes a Japanese expert who asks that his name be withheld.

“For example, it doesn’t mention retaliation from the US under the doctrine of extended deterrence”, the US policy to extend its protective umbrella of nuclear deterrence over its allies.

“If China launched first use of a nuclear weapon on Japan, it would definitely invite retaliation from the US, whether nuclear or conventional. It would inevitably lead to all-out war. So it’s not very realistic.”

So why not simply toss the video onto the noxious mountain of fetid internet outrages and ignore it altogether?

Because it’s instructive for a couple of reasons. First, it didn’t come from nowhere. “Japan has to be aware that behind this kind of cheap provocation lies the position that the Japanese government has taken on Taiwan since April â€" Tokyo has really stepped up its intention to get involved in any Taiwan Straits contingency,” says the same expert.

Specifically, Suga and his ministers have stated a tough new policy to support the US in defending Taiwan against any attempt by Beijing to take the island by force.

In the most explicit remarks yet, Japan’s Deputy Prime Minister and also Finance Minister, Taro Aso, said two weeks ago that any “major incident” in Taiwan could pose an “existential threat” to Japan.

This phrase â€" “existential threat” â€" has particular potency. Japan’s unique “peace constitution” forever renounces the use of armed force. Unless the country faces an “existential threat”. By including a threat to Taiwan as an existential threat to Japan, Aso was issuing a stark warning to Beijing.

“In such a case, Japan and the US will have to work together to defend Taiwan,” added Aso.

The Lowy Institute’s expert on China and Japan, Richard McGregor, says, “I can’t remember ever hearing such a strong statement” from a Japanese leader. “I think it’s true that, if Taiwan goes, it’s game over for Japan. They are clearly speaking up on this now and the Americans are encouraging them.”

Beijing objected strongly to Aso’s statement, which was only the latest and the most explicit in a series of such comments from Tokyo. The nuclear threat video was another response, it seems.

“The video,” says the Japanese expert, “is consistent with China’s Golden Rule for deterring Japan from going after them again â€" keep the Japanese afraid to use force, and exploit their guilty conscience over past atrocities.

“And it’s been effective, but there’s a change in Japanese public opinion now.” An April opinion poll by the Nikkei Shimbun stunned the Tokyo commentariat. It showed 74 per cent of the Japanese people supported the government’s newfound concern for stability in the Taiwan Straits.

Tactics like the nuclear threat “are less and less effective” in cowing Japan’s people and its government. Let the Games begin.

Peter Hartcher is international editor.

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Peter Hartcher is political editor and international editor of The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.

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