Fantasy Hockey Preview Pittsburgh Penguins

Many fantasy managers are pretty bullish on him; Guentzel is getting drafted early in the third rounds of most 12-team drafts based on Yahoo’s ADP (30.4), suggesting that he could finish in the top 25 in league scoring, and he certainly has the ability to do so. His shooting percentage is consistently higher than average, which is a good indicator that his 40-goal season in 2019 was absolutely no fluke, and that some bad injury luck is why he’s fallen off the radar a little bit.

Hidden gem: Bryan Rust, LW/RW

Rust is coming off two excellent seasons during which he was on pace for at least 30 goals both times. He’s 29 years old and an unrestricted free agent next summer, and it might be his last chance to cash in on a big money, long-term contract. He’s kind of a forgotten wheel among first-line players because Crosby and Guentzel usually get all the attention, and he’s definitely not a passenger on that line. 

In fact, according to naturalstattrick.com, Crosby and Guentzel’s 5v5 CF% numbers dip considerably when they’re not on the ice with Rust, who also ranked second on the team (min. 20 GP) behind Jared McCann. His ADP of 109.7 in Yahoo leagues seems rather low considering he’s a proven first-line player and right wing is a rather shallow position. Both older veterans who are starting to fall off a little bit, such as Blake Wheeler and Alexander Radulov, and riskier young players, such as Martin Necas, are all getting drafted ahead of Rust.

Goalies: There is no help coming. Louis Domingue was an early September signing to shore up depth, and beyond the career journeyman backup it’s Alex D’Orio, who split time between the AHL and ECHL last season, and rookie Filip Lindberg, a Finnish goalie signed as a free agent this past summer following three seasons at UMass-Amherst. 

That means they’re betting on a big bounce-back season from Jarry, who had a very poor start to the season â€" a 6-3 loss to the rival Flyers in the opener and getting pulled 11 minutes into his second game, also against the Flyers â€" and even at his best never seemed to keep your confidence for very long.

It’s a good thing the Pens don’t seem to really trust DeSmith, either, who didn’t play a single minute in the playoffs even when Jarry was struggling. That alone is a hint that Jarry will still have tons of fantasy value this coming season because the Pens seem committed to letting him work it out, making it unlikely for him to lose the starting job barring a monumental collapse. Starting goaltenders with heavy workloads are very scarce these days, so Jarry should easily be a top-15 fantasy goalie simply through playing volume. His 112.9 ADP on Yahoo just seems far too low; even if you’re not convinced of his ability, the Pens are still a solid team and he’s no less risky than goalies in a timeshare, such as Jack Campbell (66.1) and Petr Mrazek (83.7), or even Carey Price (61.6) and Jordan Binnington (86.1).

Outlook: The Metro is going to be tough; the Caps, Isles and Canes will all be vying for playoff spots, and the Rangers, Flyers and Devils should all improve. With Crosby and Malkin absent to start the season and McCann traded to the Leafs, it will force the Pens to start the season with Jeff Carter as their No. 1 center. He looked rejuvenated following his trade from L.A., but the 36-year-old is ill-suited for this role and the Pens’ top-six depth is not really a strength. If they can ride that out until Crosby returns, the Pens should have a good chance to make the playoffs, and both Hextall and Burke will surely be aggressive in making sure their Cup window stays open as long as Crosby is still on their roster.

Malkin, on the other hand, is watching his fantasy value crater in the latter stages of his career due to injury. He’s still a great option for points when healthy, but he rarely is these days and the aspects of his game that always needed improvement â€" mainly defensive play â€" are unlikely to ever do so at this point. He’s a player you’d be glad to stash in fantasy, but in most cases should be drafted after Guentzel, Rust and Letang. Malkin’s injury will cost him roughly one-quarter of the season, and that’s without any setbacks, so depending on your league’s settings could even finish the season with fewer points than Carter, Kapanen and Zucker. When it comes to the Pens in fantasy, focus on that top line of Crosby, Guentzel and Rust, Letang on defense and make sure Jarry doesn’t slip too far in the draft. 

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